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Wastewater Data Suggests COVID Could Be Plateauing or Rising

Credit: University of Georgia

As we mark the two year anniversary of the official beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the outlook for Athens remains positive, with the seven-day moving average of new cases dropping to 2.3 last week from 5.6 on Mar. 4. The percentage of positive tests is down to 1.7%, well below the threshold that public health experts recommend.

Clarke County added just 36 new confirmed cases last week, alongside five reported positive antigen tests, according to the Georgia Department of Public Health. To date, there have been 26,079 confirmed COVID-19 cases and an additional 3,438 positive antigen tests for the county.

New hospitalizations slowed slightly for the week, with five Clarke County residents added to the 1,128 hospitalizations since the beginning of the pandemic. Deaths also slowed this week, with two Athens residents dying last week compared to four for previous week. So far, at least 209 Clarke County residents have died of COVID-19, according to DPH data.

For the region, just 36 patients, or 6% of all patients, were hospitalized with COVID-19 last week. That’s down from 49 patients, or 7%, the previous week. Further, the strain on intensive care units slowed last week, with just 77% of ICU beds in use, compared to 90% the previous week.

While all of the DPH data bodes well for at this point for Athens, the wastewater monitoring reporting from infectious diseases professor Erin Lipp at UGA showed an increase in viral loads for the week.

“For the first time in 8 weeks, SARS‑CoV‑2 RNA loads increased on average for the week,” last week’s report noted. “Total loads across the county are still relatively low (27th percentile for the week) but this represents a distinct break from the recent trends. (last week we were at the 6th %ile for load). As we have noted before, we will not know if this is a trend until additional samples are collected. We have previously noted that during low case counts, levels in wastewater tend to be more variable. But these data are certainly worth taking seriously as it could suggest that our infection rates are plateauing or potentially rising.”

On the vaccination front, 85 Athens residents received a first dose of vaccine, 97 residents received a second dose, and 200 additional booster doses were administered for the week. Currently, 66,151 Clarke County residents, or 52%, have received the first dose, and 61,527 Clarke County residents, or 49%, have been fully vaccinated. There have been 30,059 booster or additional doses administered to residents, meaning 48% of the fully vaccinated have been boosted.

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