A credo I’ve kept since Georgia has been competing for national titles these last few years has been: If the Dawgs go undefeated in the regular season, the College Football Playoff selection committee isn’t keeping us out. By the time things shake out after championship weekend, there aren’t enough one-loss or undefeated conference champs to fill the field. If we build up enough of a case in the regular season, a loss to a power such as Alabama and LSU in the SEC Championship Game won’t be held against us.
This held true in 2021, as we lost to Alabama in Atlanta, but still got in and avenged our loss on the way to the title. Had we somehow lost to LSU last year, I imagine it would have held true again at the expense of Ohio State or TCU.
But this season, in the final year of the four-team CFP, that belief is being put to the test. Heading into championship weekend, when the Dawgs will once again play Alabama for the SEC title, spots in the CFP are still up for grabs. There’s a logjam at the top of the sport, and who knows if there will be an easy way to sort it out.
At the conclusion of the regular season, Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State all stand undefeated. Should each of these teams win their conference championship games, things will be easy. Those four go in. There’s also Oregon, Texas, Ohio State and Alabama sitting with one loss. Ohio State is already cooked after their loss to Michigan last weekend. But Oregon and Alabama could equalize Washington and Georgia, respectively, and hold the trump card of the conference championship. Texas doesn’t have that opportunity, but it does hold an away win at Alabama, a trump card of its own if the Tide beats us in Atlanta.
There are enough permutations to make your head spin. It’s still possible that even with a loss to Alabama, the committee sees us deserving; we’d just need more chaos and some help in other games. Even then, though, I don’t think the committee would include two SEC teams while there are other obviously deserving conference champs. Instead of reading tea leaves and trying to predict what’s going to happen around the country, I prefer a considerably simpler option, and I know Kirby Smart and his Dawgs do, too: Just beat Alabama.
I must say, I was feeling really good about that while watching the Iron Bowl. Much the way they did to us, the Tigers rammed the ball down Bama’s throat. Auburn looked like they were going to inexplicably knock off the Tide. They even had them down four with fourth-and-goal at the 31 with less than a minute to play. But Jalen Milroe threw a dime to Isaiah Bond in the back corner of the end zone against a prevent defense to win the game. But I saw enough misfires and miscues from Alabama to believe we are the better team.
Then I watched the Georgia Tech game and was brought back to earth. We only beat the Jackets 31–23, and they ran all over us to the tune of 226 yards. Yes, we sat four starters on offense—Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey, Rara Thomas and Tate Ratledge—gave the ball away twice, and had two touchdowns called back thanks to questionable officiating. You’d still like to beat Tech by more than eight heading into the biggest game of the season.
But if I believe in Kirby to do anything, it’s to get his team prepared for a big game, especially a big game against Alabama. This one will be different from Alabama games in the past. For the first time, we’re playing from the top. We may have been ranked higher going to Atlanta in 2021, but the Tide still had that mental edge from years of taking us down, one way or another.
Now we have the opportunity to take that edge for ourselves. We got the title win over the Tide in the ‘22 natty, but we avoided them last year en route to a second. With a win in Atlanta, we not only punch our ticket to the CFP and send Bama packing, but we stamp ourselves as the unequivocal power in the SEC before the field expands next season. Then we’ll go grab that three-peat.
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