No Change This Year

originally published May 7, 2008

You have probably heard from the pundits and the presidential candidates that this is supposed to be a year of “change” in politics. If that’s true, then Georgia’s political community obviously didn’t get the memo.

Last week was the designated period for candidates to qualify for state elections, and judging from the week’s events, there is going to be very little change in Georgia politics. The balance of power in the General Assembly, where Republicans currently control both chambers, should be largely undisturbed after the general election in November.

It looks like a large majority of legislative seats will remain under the control of the party that now holds them because no candidates were put up by the opposing party in those districts.

In the House of Representatives, there are no Democrats running in 81 districts where Republicans now hold seats - and you only need 91 seats to have majority control. On the other side of the partisan aisle, there were no Republican candidates qualifying in 61 of the 73 districts that now are represented by Democrats.

The picture is roughly the same in the state Senate. Republicans are assured of holding 20 seats regardless of what happens in November, while Democrats in 17 districts have no GOP opposition. Barely a third of the Senate seats will even be contested in the general election.

The low number of challengers from the Republican side is not surprising, because the GOP has largely consolidated power after taking majority control of the Legislature in the 2004 general election. Republicans now hold about as many seats as they could reasonably expect to control, given the state’s current voting patterns.

The GOP is now concentrating its efforts on defending the seats they already have, House Majority Leader Jerry Keen (R-St. Simons Island) said.

“Our recruiting efforts this year were more strategic and we’re focusing on protecting incumbents” Keen said. “There are four or five races where we have to work hard. Overall, we feel our incumbents are in good shape.”

For Democrats, the inability to field opponents for so many Republican incumbents has to be frustrating because of past statements from the party leadership. When she was elected state chairwoman last year, Jane Kidd vowed she would rebuild the Democratic Party organization in all 159 counties and challenge as many Republican officeholders as possible.

Party activists had hoped that the presidential candidacy of Barack Obama, who has stoked the enthusiasm of Democratic voters nationally, would help Democrats make inroads in Republican districts.

GOP officials also thought Obama would help the Democrats by boosting the turnout of African American voters. Rep. Mike Keown (R-Coolidge) told a Republican Party meeting in Thomas County earlier this year, “One of the things we’re looking at right now is that we could lose some seats, particularly with that [Barack] Obama train that’s running.”

Another factor that could have worked in the Democrats’ favor was the meltdown among the Republican leadership during this year’s legislative session, which ended with House Speaker Glenn Richardson openly feuding with Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Gov. Sonny Perdue. Polls indicated that a significant percentage of Georgia voters were not happy with the conduct of their legislators.

All of those factors won’t do a party any good, however, when it can’t put candidates on the ballot to oppose incumbent Republicans. That has to rank as a major failure for the Democrats, who continue to struggle in their efforts to become a relevant political force again.

“It’s tough to be a minority party,” Kidd said. “It’s a hard job [to serve in the Legislature] and many of them [potential candidates] have to leave their professions, and it’s a sacrifice for many of them. I’d like to have had a Democrat in every legislative race.”

This year is shaping up as another status quo year in Georgia politics, similar to 2006. While a few legislative seats may swap control, it appears that the current 107-73 split in the House and 34-22 Republican majority in the Senate will be maintained. The split in the state’s congressional delegation, which has seven Republicans and six Democrats, will probably remain the same as well.

A change year for Georgia politics? It doesn’t look like that will happen.

Tom Crawford

Tom Crawford is the editor of Capitol Impact’s Georgia Report, an Internet news site at www.gareport.com that covers government and politics in Georgia.