Now the Fun Begins

originally published April 30, 2008

This week marks the official start for the 2008 election season in Georgia as candidates troop down to the capitol to qualify for the congressional and legislative seats that are in play this year. For the prospective office holders, this is put-up-or-shut-up time. If someone really plans to run, they have to go to the capitol building and plunk down the fee to put their name on the ballot. There’s no place to hide anymore. Either you’re in or you’re out.

Qualifying week will tell us what’s going to happen in the 10th Congressional District, where state Rep. Barry Fleming (R-Harlem) said months ago he would run against Congressman Paul Broun in the Republican primary. Numerous rumors have been floated on political websites in recent weeks that Fleming was going to drop out of the congressional race and run for his legislative post again. Fleming settled that issue when he filled out the paperwork and paid the qualifying fee.

We’ll also get some answers this week about how the U.S. Senate race will play out over the next six months. Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss has to be considered the heavy favorite at this point in the race with his name recognition and his huge money advantage (he had more than $3.8 million in his campaign treasury as of Mar. 31).

There have been five potential candidates sizing up the race from the Democratic side, but only three of them could reasonably be considered serious challengers: former legislator Jim Martin, DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, and former TV news personality Dale Cardwell.

Martin is in the race for sure and has already gotten off to a strong start raising funds. Although he announced his candidacy less than two months ago, Martin has $80,000 more in the bank than Jones, who’s been running for more than a year.

Jones’ anemic fundraising - as well as personal controversies from his past that have been dogging him - has prompted predictions that he might drop out of the Senate race and run against Hank Johnson for Congress instead. We’ll see during qualifying week whether any of those predictions were valid.

Cardwell, who’s campaigned as an immigrant-bashing, conservative Democrat, has been less successful than Jones in raising money and had less than $18,000 in campaign cash when his last disclosure report was filed - an amount that isn’t nearly enough to run a credible, statewide campaign.

Cardwell might be better off if he dropped out of the Senate campaign and stepped down to a race where you don’t need as much money and where his attacks on immigrants would resonate more strongly. One option would be to run against Republican Congressman Nathan Deal in the 9th Congressional District, which has cities like Gainesville and Dalton where immigration control is an urgent issue. Qualifying week will force Cardwell to make a final decision on this.

Down at the General Assembly level, there are 180 seats in the House of Representatives and 56 seats in the state Senate that are up for grabs this year. Republicans have held a tight grip on both chambers in recent years, but in-fighting among GOP leaders has resulted in a near-meltdown in the Legislature, where important issues are not being addressed. That might not sit well with voters who are concerned about the state’s water supply, under-performing schools and over-crowded highways.

Democrats have an opportunity to exploit the discontent of voters and cut into those Republican majorities this year, but only if they can recruit viable candidates for the individual races. As the old saying goes, you can’t beat something with nothing.

The presence of Barack Obama at the top of the ticket as the Democratic presidential nominee could also provide a boost for legislative candidates who would benefit from the expanded turnout of black voters that Obama could inspire.

The caliber of the Democratic candidates who qualify for legislative races this week will give you a good idea of whether they are going to be a viable political party again - or whether Republicans are going to continue dominating them for the next few election cycles. There are lots of unresolved questions about state politics in this most interesting election year. We’ll start getting a few of the answers during qualifying week. For political junkies, this is where the fun begins.

Tom Crawford

Tom Crawford is the editor of Capitol Impact’s Georgia Report, an Internet news site at www.gareport.com that covers government and politics in Georgia.