Staying the Course

originally published September 19, 2007

The long-awaited appearance of Gen. David Petraeus came and went last week as the general delivered the White House-approved message on the Iraq War to congressional committees: stay the course and maintain the current troop levels in Iraq at least until next summer. Although the Petraeus speeches did not move the needle much in terms of public attitudes, it is clear that congressional Democrats lack the votes to pass legislation that would set a date for the withdrawal of troops. George W. Bush will be able to keep American forces in Iraq at the current level for the rest of his term.

It’s amazing that the president would be in such a position when you consider how unpopular both Bush and the war are with the public. In poll after poll conducted nationally, 55 to 65 percent of Americans consistently disapprove of the war, feel that the war was not worth fighting, and want the troops to start coming home. Bush’s approval rating has bobbed between 28 percent and 35 percent in those same polls.

Even in Georgia, which has always been a very patriotic state, as well as one with a large military presence, the numbers haven’t been much better. In a poll conducted the first week of September by Atlanta’s Strategic Vision consulting firm, only 36 percent of Georgians approved of Bush’s handling of the Iraq war, while 48 percent disapproved. On the question of whether there should be an immediate withdrawal of military forces from Iraq, almost as many Georgians favored an immediate withdrawal (41 percent) as opposed it (43 percent). Keep in mind that Strategic Vision is a Republican firm that words its questions to elicit as favorable a response as possible for GOP politicians. But even a Republican polling firm, in a conservative state, comes up with survey results that indicate a large percentage of Georgians don’t like the situation in Iraq.

With opposition that strong, how can Bush continue with an unpopular war strategy? It’s because his Republican base has held firm. GOP congressmen have largely stuck with the president to fight off all attempts to pass legislation that would set a withdrawal date.

The Republicans in Georgia’s congressional delegation, of course, are also reliable Bush supporters. Senators Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson contend that things are going just fine in Iraq and would probably call you a traitor if you suggested voting against the president’s wishes. “It is an indisputable fact that the increase in troops has enhanced the security environment on the ground,” Chambliss said after the Petraeus appearances before Congress. “However, to sustain this progress and continue improving security and political reconciliation, we need to give our full support to General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker in their current efforts in Iraq.” Even two of the state’s Democratic House members, Jim Marshall and John Barrow, have voted with the Republicans on nearly every occasion this year to defeat proposals to set a troop withdrawal date.

Chambliss, as it happens, is up for reelection to the Senate in 2008. If such a large proportion of the state’s voters are unhappy about the war, shouldn’t he at least acknowledge that sentiment?

To understand why he doesn’t, let’s look at another statewide survey, the Peach State Poll, that was conducted last year by the University of Georgia. That poll also showed that the views of Georgians were “mostly in line” with the views of Americans on the war, but there was a sharp divide when you compared Republicans to Democrats. While more than 80 percent of Georgia’s Democrats thought the war was a mistake, less than 20 percent of Republicans felt that way.

Chambliss, then, is reflecting the views of the voters who will be nominating him in the Republican primary. To go against the Republican base on the war would invite a challenge from within his own party. Chambliss also does not have to worry about facing a strong Democratic opponent in the general election. The Democratic choices at this point are between DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, a joke of a candidate, and former TV newsman Dale Cardwell, who has a clean personal background, but probably can’t raise enough money to mount a credible campaign.

As bad as things might get in Iraq, Chambliss doesn’t have to worry that it will cause him any problems in getting reelected - and he’s well aware of that fact.

Tom Crawford

Tom Crawford is the editor of Capitol Impact’s Georgia Report, an Internet news site at www.gareport.com that covers government and politics in Georgia.